-Jesús Zomeño-

 

Hello everyone, I have chosen these three articles to propose a discussion, and I anticipate I give no answer because I am not qualified enough, about the possible impact that may have the election of Donald Trump for the current situation of international logistics.

Beyond racist and sexist discourses, Trump has been a candidate heavily rejected by the American financial powers (Wall Street) and by an important sector of the big American companies. Why? Mainly because of Trump’s willingness to reject free trade agreements and make a protectionist change to revitalize (or revive) US industrial power that existed before the neoliberal stage entered and with it the intense globalization. Given this election, China made a serious threat to the US about not importing its products, including Iphones, Boeing and agricultural products such as corn, which would have a strong impact on the US economy.

Well, after the introduction, I want to think about what would be the consequences for the world maritime trade if an economic war between China and the US began? We are talking about an industry that has experienced a very strong growth thanks to the enormous development of Chinese industries in recent years but which is now suffering a drop in the demand because of the collapse of the commerce  in raw materials last year and which sees certain problems in the future.

We are talking about the first importing country (USA) and the first exporting country (China) of the whole world. We are talking about the fact that nowadays ship companies still believe that cost optimization is due to increased transport capacity, and ships are still being produced, and even larger, although the growth, linked to China, has stagnated and seven of the world’s 10 busiest ports are in China.

As one of the articles says, this industry is driven by few companies and another possible consequence of this protectionism may be the reduction, even more, of the companies in the market and ending up with the survivor ones controlling the world maritime trade which would imply an oligopoly or even monopoly and, as a rule of competition, it could mean an increase of the prices for the transport.

I think that a fulfillment of the promises of both countries could, and now I am not just talking about maritime transport, depress the world economy (the importance of shipping companies and their relation with many industries is a key factor) and It also could force to make a new design about the international transport.

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